Cities in the 21st century — a city-dominated world

Picture of Beijing in the 21st century

The 18th and 19th centuries were the last centuries of empire in the world. The idea of the nation-state took hold in the 19th century. The Wesphalian idea of nation-state sovereignty that basically says that a nation's affairs are its own, and no other state has the right to act within its borders has been the basic diplomatic template since the 17th century. The limits to the nation-state were shown by European rivalries at the beginning of the 20th century while growth in cities began to flourish from the mid-20th century across the world. As a consequence the 21st century looks set to become the 'century of the cities'.

By the year 2030, three out of five people will live in cities. The UN forecasts that today's urban population of 3.2 billion will rise to nearly 5 billion by then. The top 25 cities in the world account for more than half of the world's wealth. And the five largest cities in China and India account for 50pc of those countries' wealth.

This increase will be most dramatic on the least-urbanised continents, Asia, América Latina and Africa. Surveys and projections indicate that most urban growth in coming years will be in emerging economies as the map below indicates.


Map of Growth in Cities since 1950s, 2000s and projected to 2015

Mega-regions

A new concept has recently arisen in the growth of cities known as the 'mega-region'. A mega-region occurs when growth in cities in a particular region is accelerated. Research shows that the world's largest 40 mega-regions cover only a tiny fraction of the habitable surface of the planet and are home to fewer than 18pc of the world's population but account for 66pc of all economic activity and about 85pc of technological and scientific innovation. The mega-regions, rather than countries, are becoming the key driver behind economic development and wealth creation.

The largest of these is the Shenhzen-Guangzhou region in China, home to about 120 million people. China is planning to create the world's biggest 'mega-region' by merging nine cities to create a metropolis twice the size of Wales with a population of 42 million.

Map of new Chinese mega-region

The new mega-region will cover a large part of China's manufacturing heartland, stretching from Guangzhou to Shenzhen and including Foshan, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Zhuhai, Jiangmen, Huizhou and Zhaoqing. Together, they account for nearly a tenth of the Chinese economy.

By 2015, around 150 major infrastructure projects will mesh the transport, energy, water and telecommunications networks of the nine cities together, at a cost of some 2 trillion yuan (£190 billion). An express rail line will also connect the hub with nearby Hong Kong.

A new concept 'Aerotropolis'

In a new book titled “Aerotropolis: The Way We’ll Live Next” by Kasarda and Lindsay, the authors develop a vision of the 'aerotropolis' as a symbol of a city-dominated world. The aerotropolis is “glocal,” a place that draws on local competitive advantages (like cheap labor) as it plugs into the  21^st century global on-demand-production supply chains. Therefore it makes sense to affix cities to airports on the model of the aerotropoli for air transport companies such as Fedex and UPS. Hence an airport, having begun life as an outlying curiosity, on the edge of the city, becomes the heart of the mega-region or mega-city, its raison d’être.

The book illustrates this new concept through a series of compelling numbers. While world GDP rose 154pc between 1975 and 2005, world trade grew 355pc. Meanwhile, the value of air cargo climbed an astonishing 1,395pc. More than a third of all the goods traded in the world, some $3 trillion worth - but barely one percent of its weight! - travels via air freight.

If the book is right and Aerotropoli do take off, then, this has the potential to further push international trade relations between mega cities and mega-regions into the foreframe and leave the country relationship as a minor detail. For example, when New Songdo, an aerotropolis near Seoul, does business with São Paulo, the South Korean-Brazilian relationship is of little interest. Likewise the new Chinese Shenhzen-Guangzhou mega-region is likely to pay little attention to what the UK thinks, but will be very interested in London.